China announced a 75.8% preliminary tariff on Canadian canola on Tuesday, following an anti-dumping investigation launched last year in response to Canada’s tax on Chinese electric vehicles.

China’s Ministry of Commerce published the details of the plan on Tuesday, claiming the “dumping” of Canadian canola into the Chinese market is hurting its domestic canola oil market.

The Canola Council of Canada says “anti-dumping investigations are initiated when a country suspects a product is being imported at a lower price than it is sold for in the domestic country in which it is produced.

“The CCC believes strongly that Canada’s canola trade with China is aligned with international rules-based trade,” says a statement on the organization’s website, posted before China’s announcement.

The council has not yet commented on Tuesday’s tariff decision.

China’s commerce ministry also said in a separate social media post Tuesday that the two countries met four days ago to discuss trade.

“The two sides had in-depth and frank exchanges on bilateral economic and trade relations and key economic and trade concerns of both sides, and exchanged views on deepening bilateral, regional and multilateral economic and trade co-operation,” the post read.

The Prime Minister’s Office deferred comment on the canola tariffs to the minister of international trade, who did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles in October 2024, a move that is to be reviewed within one year.

Canada supplies China with most of its canola but China currently exports very few electric vehicles to Canada.

When Canada levied tariffs on Chinese EVs last year — which are significantly less expensive than North American-made EVs, in part because of lower labour and environmental standards and state subsidies — it justified the move as protecting “the transformation and planned investments in Canada’s vehicle sector.”

“Actors like China have chosen to give themselves an unfair advantage in the global marketplace, compromising the security of our critical industries and displacing dedicated Canadian auto and metal workers. So, we’re taking action to address that,” then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the time.

The Chinese EV tariff also matched a similar move made by then U.S. president Joe Biden.

But with EV sales slumping in Canada following the abrupt ending of the government’s popular Incentive for Zero-Emission Vehicle program, which provided up to $5,000 toward the cost of a new EV, environmental groups have called on Canada to revisit the Chinese EV tariff to help drive competition in the Canadian market.

“Allowing in a limited quota of these affordable vehicles while also recognizing EU-approved vehicles … would open Canada’s vehicle market to fill important market gaps, drive innovation and ultimately make our auto sector more competitive,” Clean Energy Canada said back in July.

Canada has pledged to bring back some form of rebate for Canadians wanting to buy a new EV, but hasn’t given a timeline for when such a measure would be implemented.

Ontario and Saskatchewan remained at odds over Canada’s response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war Wednesday as the premiers prepared to meet with the prime minister to talk trade.

Prime Minister Mark Carney was holding virtual meetings in private with his cabinet and the premiers Wednesday afternoon, less than a week after Trump ramped up his trade assault on Canada with a baseline 35% tariff.

The new tariff applies only to goods not covered by the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement on free trade, better known as CUSMA.

The levy took effect Friday after the two countries failed to hit an Aug. 1 deadline to secure a new trade agreement.

Before meeting with Carney, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he was frustrated by the impacts of high U.S. tariffs on his province’s economy and called again for retaliatory tariffs.

“You can’t have tariffs on one side and not the other. I still stand by what I say — dollar for dollar, tariff for tariff,” Ford told reporters at a news conference Wednesday in Thornhill, Ont.

“They understand strength, not weakness, and we should never, ever roll over and be weak.”

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, meanwhile, said Wednesday Canada should dial down its retaliatory tariffs.

“Maybe it’s time for Canada even to at least not add additional counter-tariffs in this space, but to even consider removing some of the counter-tariffs that are harmful to Canadian businesses and Saskatchewan businesses today,” Moe said during a radio interview, adding that Canada is largely “protected” by the CUSMA trade pact.

Moe said his province is working to protect industries hit hard by tariffs, including the steel sector.

“What we’ve done is pull forward a significant amount — 10 years, actually — of Crown procurement to support the steel industries here in Saskatchewan,” he said.

Moe credited Carney for his government’s efforts to strengthen trade ties with other countries, including Mexico, particularly while Canada remains subject to China’s canola oil and meal tariffs.

When asked to explain why his government put American liquor back on shelves and returned to its standard procurement processes, Moe said the government already prioritizes Saskatchewan companies.

“We need to get to that space in a more solid form with our largest trading partner, the United States of America, and someone is going to have to take the early steps,” he said, noting Alberta has also shifted its policies.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s office said she would not be issuing any statements ahead of the meeting.

Ford said he wants to see more done to stimulate the economy. He called on Ottawa to cut taxes and said the Bank of Canada should drop its interest rate.

“We have to get the governor of the Bank of Canada to lower those damn interest rates from 2.75,” he said. “Knock ’em down. Build confidence.

“Let’s work together on getting rid of the HST on homebuyers, and not just first (time) ones. Let’s stimulate the market and we’ll follow suit if the federal government does that.”

Ford said Wednesday he had a “good conversation” with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Tuesday that was “positive,” and he believes the prime minister is doing everything in his power to get a fair trade deal with the U.S.

Carney told a press conference in B.C. on Tuesday that he has not talked to Trump in recent days but will speak with him “when it makes sense.”

The prime minister added that about 85% of trade with the U.S. remains tariff-free because of CUSMA.

Sector-specific tariffs, like the 50% duty on steel, aluminum and copper, remain in place.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne were in Mexico City on Wednesday, part of a two-day mission to meet with Mexican officials and businesses on trade.

— With files from Lisa Johnson in Edmonton, Alta., and Allison Jones in Thornhill, Ont.

The effective U.S. tariff rate on Canadian exporters has dropped sharply in recent months as companies have rushed to bring their products into compliance with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (also referred to as the USMCA) trade deal, reports National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF).

In a new report, economists at NBF noted the effective tariff rate on exports to the U.S. is far below the headline levels imposed by the U.S. administration on Canada overall — thanks to exemptions from those headline rates under the USMCA trade deal.

“USMCA compliance remains the name of the tariff game in Canada,” it said.

For exports that don’t comply with the agreement, the tariff rate is over 25%, the report noted. At the rates of compliance with the USMCA back in March, the effective rate would be over 15%.

However, “As compliance has stepped up rapidly since tariffs were introduced this year, the effective tariff on U.S.-bound exports has dropped significantly,” it noted. Indeed, it estimates that the national effective tariff is currently about 5%.

Most of the exposure to higher U.S. tariffs is being felt in specifically targeted sectors, such as the steel, aluminum and auto industries, the report noted.

As a result, different regions of the country are also facing different economic impacts.

For instance, Ontario and Quebec’s higher exposures to these sectors translate into higher effective tariff rates in these provinces — over 7% — and more negative economic impacts, including rising unemployment rates.

“So, while the USMCA offers Canada significant tariff carveouts, we’d caution against completely discounting the impact of this year’s trade war,” the report said. Sector- and province-specific damage is happening — and that’s starting to be reflected in the economic data.

Recent employment data is pointing to a weaker labour market than the Bank of Canada appears to be seeing — as that weakness filters through to wages, the central bank will be prompted to cut rates once again, says National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF).

In a new report, NBF noted that, while it wasn’t a surprise that the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged this week, it’s still expecting another 50 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year.

Key to that call is the evolving labour market, and its impact on inflation.

As it stands, the Bank of Canada has highlighted the fact that recent job losses remain limited to sectors that are being hard hit by trade-related disruptions, it noted.

“While the central bank acknowledges that several labour market indicators point to growing slack, it continues to play down the severity of the weakness,” NBF noted.

However, there are signs in the recent data that the job market is deteriorating.

Indeed, the report noted that the closely-watched Labour Force Survey data overestimates employment, “for methodological reasons,” whereas the payrolls data is pointing to, “a much weaker labour market.”

And, NBF said that, in the current environment, it believes that the payrolls data is providing, “a more accurate assessment of employment trends … and points to widespread weakness in the private sector.”

In turn, this weakness is also translating into slower wage growth, it said.

“The annual change in private sector hourly wages is now only 3.1%, due to an annualized rate of just 0.5% over the last six months,” it said.

“Combined with a relatively strong dollar, this allows us to be optimistic about a moderation in inflationary pressures,” the report noted — and, as a result, it continues to expect 50 bps in cuts to come this year.

Canadian business groups anxiously watching trade negotiations with the U.S. don’t want the country to rush into a deal but say the uncertainty is weighing on their members.

After U.S. President Donald Trump applied 35% tariffs to many Canadian goods overnight, groups representing Canada’s small businesses, steel producers and more spent Friday hammering a unified message: “no deal is better than a bad deal.”

“A little more time now can deliver lasting benefits for an integrated North American economy— and that’s well worth the wait,” said Candace Laing, president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a statement.

Canada has had a tense relationship with its closest ally since earlier this year, when Donald Trump kicked off his second presidency with a tariff regime targeting his country’s northern neighbour and a vast swath of other nations.

Canadian steel, aluminum and automobiles bore the brunt of his early levies, but Trump eventually agreed to explore a potential deal.

He set Aug. 1 as a deadline to reach a trade deal and said if an agreement wasn’t brokered by then, tariffs on goods not compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) would rise immediately.

The exemption means much of Canada’s cross-border trade is currently tariff-free, Laing said.

“However, not all Canadian businesses have this advantage and the jump to 35% tariffs on non-CUSMA compliant products places an additional load on them,” she said.

She feels businesses in Canada and the U.S. urgently need more certainty.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business agrees. It warned Friday that the current uncertainty is keeping many of its 100,000 members from planning for the future.

The lack of resolution has left companies unsure whether they will need to scale back operations or lay off staff.

“The worst outcome for Canada is a bad deal,” CFIB president Dan Kelly said in a statement. “But the second worst outcome is ongoing uncertainty over Canada-U.S. trade. This is what small business owners now face.”

Unifor president Lana Payne said the impact the tariffs will have on workers and businesses can’t be underestimated, pointing to layoffs and shift reductions since Trump began the trade war.

“This is an extortion game that’s being played by the president of the United States,” said Payne, whose union represents more than 315,000 workers.

“We can’t allow the tactics that he’s using for us to end up in a place where we write off the auto industry, where we write off forestry workers, where we write off steel workers.”

Payne thinks Canada has leverage — aluminum, critical minerals, electricity, oil and potash — and should be using them to retaliate. She said she has repeated that message to Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. and the prime minister’s office.

“We have to fight back for all workers, because we know it isn’t going to just stop with them,” she said.

“It’s important right now that we draw a line in the sand and understand that Canada has a lot of strength and a lot of leverage, and we’re going to have to use some of it.”

— with files from Alessia Passafiume in Ottawa

Canada was hit with 35% tariffs on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump followed through on his threat to increase the duties if Ottawa didn’t make a trade deal.

The White House said the tariffs would not affect goods compliant with the Canada–U.S.–Mexico Agreement on trade, commonly known as CUSMA.

Trump signed the executive order Thursday night to slap Canada with the increased duties. A fact sheet from the White House justified the rate change by saying Canada “failed to cooperate in curbing the ongoing flood of fentanyl” and also pointed to Ottawa’s implementation of retaliatory tariffs.

In a statement from Carney released just after midnight, he said the government was disappointed by the actions and said that “Canada accounts for only 1% of U.S. fentanyl imports and has been working intensively to further reduce these volumes.”

He also noted that “The U.S. application of CUSMA means that the U.S. average tariff rate on Canadian goods remains one of its lowest for all of its trading partners.”

The prime minister added that some industries — including lumber, steel, aluminum and automobiles — will be harder hit, but that the government will try to minimize the impact and protect Canadian jobs.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday that Canada’s negotiations with the United States might not conclude by Donald Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline, as the president added new trade measures that could further hinder some Canadian businesses.

Carney said talks have been complex, comprehensive and constructive. He also said they are ongoing and cover “a broad variety of topics.”

“There are many areas for co-operation between Canada and the United States, including defence spending, security spending, investments, which is one of the reasons why we’re having these broader discussions,” Carney said at a news conference in Ottawa.

Trump sent a letter to Carney threatening to impose 35% tariffs if Canada doesn’t make a trade deal by Friday. The White House has said those duties would not apply to goods compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade, better known as CUSMA.

The Canadian economy is also being slammed by Trump’s Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles.

Trump on Wednesday signed executive orders for 50% tariffs on semi-finished copper products starting Friday. The president, however, didn’t include imports of the refined metal in his order, leaving many in the Canadian copper industry feeling relieved.

In a separate order, Trump suspended de minimis exemptions — which had allowed packages worth US$800 or less to ship to the United States tariff-free. As part of his reasoning for the change, Trump cited the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

Canadian Federation of Independent Business president and CEO Dan Kelly said suspending the de minimis exemption “is bad news for many Canadian small businesses.” The federation’s data shows about one-third of small Canadian exporters used the exemption to ship to U.S. consumers duty-free, Kelly said in a post on social media.

Pascal Chan, the vice-president of strategic policy and supply chains at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said it adds “another layer of uncertainty for Canadian businesses exporting to the U.S.,” particularly small- and medium-sized businesses.

“Any increase in compliance costs and delivery delays will only serve to compound the pressure on the cross-border supply chains that have long fuelled our shared economic prosperity,” Chan said in a statement.

The latest trade changes come as countries around the world are set to face staggering tariffs when Trump’s deadline to make deals passes.

Tariffs, U.S. investment, part of deals so far

Trump announced a deal with South Korea on Wednesday that will see the country slapped with a 15% tariff.

The president said South Korea “will give to the United States $350 Billion Dollars for Investments owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as President.” In a post on social media, Trump said South Korea will also “purchase $100 Billion Dollars of LNG, or other Energy products.”

In a separate post, the president also said he “concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves,” but Trump didn’t provide details of a tariff rate.

Frameworks of deals have previously been announced for the European Union, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and the United Kingdom — with all nations facing some level of baseline tariff.

Not all the details of the deals are clear, but Trump has said countries can “buy down” the tariff rate, and most agreements have come with announcements of billion-dollar investments.

Trump on Wednesday also escalated his threats against Brazil — which will be hit with a 50% duty — and India — which will face a 25% tariff, plus an additional import tax because India purchases Russian oil.

Trump has been dismissive of conversations with Canada, saying it is not a priority for his administration. The president said Wednesday that America’s northern neighbour is a high-tariff nation, misrepresenting Canadian duties for agriculture imports.

“They’ve been charging our farmers 200 per cent, 300 per cent, 400 per cent for years and nobody did anything about it,” Trump told reporters.

Carney met virtually with his cabinet earlier Wednesday for a meeting focused largely on the situation in the Middle East.

Carney said Canada is seeking the best deal for Canadians and that negotiations will continue until that is achieved. He said Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, will remain in Washington with senior officials “in pursuit of that goal.”

— With files from Catherine Morrison

Why should mom and dad, now in their elder years, be expected to hobble to the rescue of junior yet again because government housing policy muffed it?

Weren’t grandparent baby sitting services along with a cheque to help with junior’s down payment enough?

As the article on seniors’ reluctance to downsize notes, government policy needs to make downsizing palatable. That would include a more equitable distribution of the very generous grants available to seniors if they simply stay put and retrofit their current abode with energy-efficient upgrades.

Whereas if they were to downsize to a condo dwelling to make way for junior, such grants are far more stingily distributed (if at all). And the costs of structural maintenance are mandatory and considerable, as they are backed by an automatic liens behind all condo-to-owner billings such as maintenance fees. Those fees include contributions to the reserve fund.

As the Condominium Authority of Ontario has only recent realized, such structural maintenance fees rise far in excess of the rate of inflation. And the automatic liens behind such bills — while there for practical reasons — is also the due process to remove property title from the owner should they be unable to pay.

So junior is asking a heck of a lot from mom and/or dad to downsize so junior’s generation can move up. Especially as it wasn’t mom or dad or junior who created this problem, but decades of political inertia.

While mom and dad are flattered that junior still relies on them to sort out all of life challenges, isn’t this expectation that the elders simply shuffle aside also incredibly ageist on the part of government policy drafters?

Amid stronger labour markets and ongoing inflation concerns, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is unlikely to cut rates next week, but the prospect of future rate cuts persists, according to National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF).

In a report previewing the upcoming rate decision, NBF said it’s now very unlikely that the BoC will cut rates next week. NBF had previously forecast a July cut, however, the latest economic data has altered that call.

“Those who had earlier been expecting a cut in July, us included, were dealt a blow this month when hiring was reported to have surged in June and underlying inflation failed to moderate,” it noted. “The closely watched Business Outlook Survey was hardly upbeat but still-soft sentiment is insufficient to compensate for firm core inflation and strong job growth.”

While the market is nearly unanimous in expecting that the central bank will leave rates unchanged, NBF said there’s now also “growing momentum around the idea that the easing cycle is over.”

NBF isn’t adopting this view and it doesn’t expect the central bank to signal that either.

“Instead, they’re likely to keep guidance unchanged, reiterating that they’re proceeding carefully and monitoring the same four indicators: export demand; tariff impacts on investment, employment and spending; inflation; and inflation expectations,” it said.

This approach leaves scope for possible cuts later this year, the report noted.

“There are signs that Canada’s economy will underwhelm in the months ahead as businesses and consumers tread cautiously,” NBF said.

“Trade impacts may not be as bad as feared but exports are unlikely to be a reliable source of growth. A trade ‘deal’ with the U.S. would be helpful to address uncertainty but an agreement will still involve material protectionism and is unlikely to return the economy to its pre-Trump growth path.”

Ultimately, inflation will be the primary driver of future rate decisions, NBF said.

“To us, the disinflationary pressures associated with marginal economic slack will outweigh tariff-related cost pressures which should keep all-items CPI contained and moderate core inflation.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney downplayed the importance of a looming Aug. 1 deadline in trade talks with the U.S. on Tuesday, saying the objective is to get the best possible deal for Canadians.

“They’re complex negotiations and we’ll use all the time that’s necessary,” he told reporters after meeting with premiers at the Council of the Federation gathering in Huntsville, Ont.

Carney said the government will agree to a deal “if there’s one on the table that is in the best interests of Canadians.”

He described such a deal as one “that preserves, reinforces and stabilizes” the trade relationship between Canada and the U.S., and “also one that doesn’t tie our hands in terms of other things that we can do.”

Carney was invited to join the premiers in Ontario’s cottage country this week as they gathered to discuss eliminating internal trade barriers and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 35% tariffs on a wide variety of Canadian goods on Aug. 1.

Carney told premiers that Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will be in Washington, D.C., this week and said the federal government is “only going to accept the best deal for Canada.”

He also said the government is working to bring longstanding trade issues involving softwood lumber into the broader negotiations, if possible.

At a press conference after the meeting on Tuesday afternoon, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston said that while he’d like to see a deal that eliminates tariffs altogether, “we’re not in that world right now” with Trump imposing levies on trade partners around the globe.

“We just have to be open-minded about what that might look like,” he said.

Major project pitches

Carney said Tuesday’s gathering offered a chance for the premiers to focus on ways to build a stronger economy. The Liberal government has passed legislation granting cabinet the power to fast-track major projects it deems to be in the national interest, and is set to open its major projects office by Labour Day.

Premiers have submitted their pitches for projects they’d like to see fast-tracked, but Carney has said the government has not yet started assembling a list of projects. Houston said he hopes the projects office will be able to provide some clarity on that by the fall.

“We need you to work together to propose ideas and have consensus on the projects that you want to move forward,” Carney told the premiers at the start of the meeting, adding that continuous engagement with Indigenous Peoples is a key part of that effort.

The premiers met with First Nations, Métis and Inuit leaders on Monday.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he believes Carney is close to signing off on a few major projects. He has put forward a list of five major projects he’d like to see built; his top priority is mining in the Ring of Fire region in northwestern Ontario, which is said to be replete with critical minerals.

Ford came out of the meeting saying he believes Canada will strike a good deal with the U.S.

“We’re standing behind the prime minister to make sure that he has a fair and free trade deal for Canada and every single province and territory, and I’m very confident that’s going to happen,” he said.

At the start of the meeting with Carney, Ford said he personally still wants Canada to match Trump’s tariffs “dollar for dollar, and hit him back as hard as we possibly can,” adding strength is the only thing this president understands.

He also said the federal government needs to be ready to support industries hit hard by the trade war, and Canada needs to onshore production of things like aluminum cans and steel beams to avoid tariffs.

“We need to send them a strong message. We don’t have to take a back seat to anyone in the world, and we sure the heck don’t have to take a back seat to President Trump,” he said.

Ford, who chairs the Council of the Federation, praised Carney for being a “brilliant businessman” and said it’s refreshing for premiers to work with a prime minister who “has our backs.”

Carney commended the premiers on the series of trade agreements they’ve signed to open up access to internal Canadian markets.

On Tuesday morning, Ford joined the premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan in announcing a new memorandum of understanding calling for the construction of new pipelines using Ontario steel. The agreement also calls for new rail lines to be built to help ship critical minerals from yet-to-be approved mines in the Ring of Fire to Western Canada.

Ford called the agreement a “game changer” that focuses on shipping Western oil to refineries in southern Ontario and a new deep sea port in James Bay.

B.C. Premier David Eby was not invited to sign the agreement and said he didn’t know the details of the deal. He was asked Tuesday whether his government is open to supporting the construction of an oil pipeline from Alberta to B.C.’s northern coast — something which it has vocally opposed in the past.

“There’s no project, there’s no proponent, there’s no private sector money involved that I’m aware of,” he said. “When Premier Smith crosses those obvious hurdles to get a project done, then let’s have those conversations.”