China announced a 75.8% preliminary tariff on Canadian canola on Tuesday, following an anti-dumping investigation launched last year in response to Canada’s tax on Chinese electric vehicles.

China’s Ministry of Commerce published the details of the plan on Tuesday, claiming the “dumping” of Canadian canola into the Chinese market is hurting its domestic canola oil market.

The Canola Council of Canada says “anti-dumping investigations are initiated when a country suspects a product is being imported at a lower price than it is sold for in the domestic country in which it is produced.

“The CCC believes strongly that Canada’s canola trade with China is aligned with international rules-based trade,” says a statement on the organization’s website, posted before China’s announcement.

The council has not yet commented on Tuesday’s tariff decision.

China’s commerce ministry also said in a separate social media post Tuesday that the two countries met four days ago to discuss trade.

“The two sides had in-depth and frank exchanges on bilateral economic and trade relations and key economic and trade concerns of both sides, and exchanged views on deepening bilateral, regional and multilateral economic and trade co-operation,” the post read.

The Prime Minister’s Office deferred comment on the canola tariffs to the minister of international trade, who did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles in October 2024, a move that is to be reviewed within one year.

Canada supplies China with most of its canola but China currently exports very few electric vehicles to Canada.

When Canada levied tariffs on Chinese EVs last year — which are significantly less expensive than North American-made EVs, in part because of lower labour and environmental standards and state subsidies — it justified the move as protecting “the transformation and planned investments in Canada’s vehicle sector.”

“Actors like China have chosen to give themselves an unfair advantage in the global marketplace, compromising the security of our critical industries and displacing dedicated Canadian auto and metal workers. So, we’re taking action to address that,” then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the time.

The Chinese EV tariff also matched a similar move made by then U.S. president Joe Biden.

But with EV sales slumping in Canada following the abrupt ending of the government’s popular Incentive for Zero-Emission Vehicle program, which provided up to $5,000 toward the cost of a new EV, environmental groups have called on Canada to revisit the Chinese EV tariff to help drive competition in the Canadian market.

“Allowing in a limited quota of these affordable vehicles while also recognizing EU-approved vehicles … would open Canada’s vehicle market to fill important market gaps, drive innovation and ultimately make our auto sector more competitive,” Clean Energy Canada said back in July.

Canada has pledged to bring back some form of rebate for Canadians wanting to buy a new EV, but hasn’t given a timeline for when such a measure would be implemented.

The financial pressure on households from deteriorating economic conditions is starting to show up in the performance of Canadian asset-backed securities (ABS), Fitch Ratings says.

In a new report, the rating agency said that the performance of Canadian credit card and auto loan ABS is weakening amid an economic slowdown due to the growing trade conflict with the U.S.

Credit card balances have risen amid slowing payment rates, it noted, “as households rely upon credit card borrowing to manage higher expenses and other debts.”

Additionally, credit card, “charge-offs are increasing and now exceed pre-pandemic levels,” Fitch reported — while Canadian auto loan ABS delinquencies and losses, “continue to rise toward pre-pandemic levels.”

Amid the rising economic and financial pressures, Fitch is forecasting a “mild recession” for Canada in 2025, and rising unemployment.

“Inflation and a cooling labour market will slow real income growth, while higher U.S. tariffs and slower population growth will weigh on consumer spending. Household liabilities remain high despite prior policy easing by the Bank of Canada,” Fitch said.

“Highly leveraged and lower-income households with minimal financial buffers remain under pressure,” it added.

Against this backdrop, the rating agency has a “deteriorating” outlook for Canadian ABS as risk grows.

While home prices have weakened in recent quarters, renovation costs increased 0.9% in the second quarter of 2025 after a 0.3% increase in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said Friday.

Last month, the national statistical agency reported that the New Housing Price Index fell 0.2% nationwide in June. Prices were down in 12 of the 27 metropolitan areas tracked by the index, led by a 0.9% drop in Sudbury, Ont., and a 0.8% decline in Calgary.

Additionally, both the Canadian Real Estate Association and Fitch downgraded their housing forecast this summer.

Residential renovation prices were up in all 15 census metropolitan areas measured, with Quebec leading at 3%, followed by Regina and Saskatoon (both 2.2%). Toronto saw the smallest quarterly increase at 0.3%.

Among provinces, Saskatchewan recorded the largest quarterly cost increase at 2.2%, followed by Newfoundland and Labrador (1.8%). Saskatchewan also posted the largest year-over-year growth at 4.8%, followed by Alberta (4.1%) and Quebec (3.5%).

U.S. tariffs, including a 25% tariff on steel, aluminum, iron, appliances and textiles, contributed to renovation cost increases across the country. Projects such as installing solar panels, replacing heat pumps, installing new furnaces and replacing carpet saw some of the largest increases. Other projects, such as windows and doors and flooring, saw smaller increases.

The Canadian economy shed some 41,000 jobs in July as young workers and the private sector bore the brunt of the losses, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The unemployment rate held steady at 6.9% as the number of job seekers was roughly unchanged from June.

The economy lost 51,000 full-time positions in July, and StatCan said the bulk of the losses were in the private sector.

Young workers in particular continue to struggle in a tough summer jobs market.

Youth aged 15 to 24 lost 34,000 positions last month while the employment rate for the age group fell to 53.6% — the lowest level since November 1998, outside the Covid pandemic.

July’s drop in jobs partially offsets an unexpected gain of 83,000 positions in June.

StatCan said employment was down across several industries in July.

The information, culture and recreation sector led job losses with 29,000 positions shed, followed by construction, which lost 22,000 roles.

Offsetting those losses was an increase of 26,000 jobs in transportation and warehousing, marking the sector’s first job gain since January. Parts of this industry are affected by U.S. demand for exports and have faced disruption from the United States’ tariff campaign in recent months.

Manufacturing, another tariff-sensitive industry, posted its second consecutive month of modest job gains with 5,300 positions added in July. On a year-over-year basis, employment in manufacturing is still down by 9,400 jobs.

StatCan said the layoff rate — the proportion of people employed in June but laid off in July — was virtually unchanged at 1.1% from the same month a year ago despite the uncertainty tied to trade and U.S. tariffs.

But many of those looking for work are struggling to land a job, the agency noted.

Of the 1.6 million people who were jobless in July, 23.8% were in long-term unemployment, meaning they’ve been on the job hunt for 27 weeks or more. StatCan said that’s the highest share of long-term unemployment since February 1998, again excluding the pandemic.

Average hourly wages meanwhile rose 3.3% on an annual basis in July, up a tick from June.

Household income growth slowed sharply in the first quarter among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, according to new data.

The Paris-based group reported that both income and GDP growth slowed in the first three months of 2025, with real household income and real GDP rising by just 0.1% (per capita) in the first quarter — a slowdown from 0.6% growth in incomes and 0.4% growth in GDP recorded in the previous quarter.

Additionally, the OECD noted that while about half the countries it tracks recorded a gain in household incomes, the other half saw incomes fall.

In the G7, most countries recorded an increase in real household income in the first quarter, it noted — led by a 1% jump in Italy — but the U.K. and Germany both saw incomes decline.

Canada experienced a modest 0.1% gain in household income, trailing a 0.4% increase in real GDP, the OECD noted.

Whereas in the U.S., incomes were up 0.5%, despite a 0.3% contraction in real GDP for the quarter, it said.

Outside of the G7, Chile saw the strongest growth in household incomes, the OECD reported, with real per capita income rising 3.1% in the quarter, “as consumer price inflation fell and real GDP per capita increased (0.5%).”

Ontario and Saskatchewan remained at odds over Canada’s response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war Wednesday as the premiers prepared to meet with the prime minister to talk trade.

Prime Minister Mark Carney was holding virtual meetings in private with his cabinet and the premiers Wednesday afternoon, less than a week after Trump ramped up his trade assault on Canada with a baseline 35% tariff.

The new tariff applies only to goods not covered by the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement on free trade, better known as CUSMA.

The levy took effect Friday after the two countries failed to hit an Aug. 1 deadline to secure a new trade agreement.

Before meeting with Carney, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he was frustrated by the impacts of high U.S. tariffs on his province’s economy and called again for retaliatory tariffs.

“You can’t have tariffs on one side and not the other. I still stand by what I say — dollar for dollar, tariff for tariff,” Ford told reporters at a news conference Wednesday in Thornhill, Ont.

“They understand strength, not weakness, and we should never, ever roll over and be weak.”

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, meanwhile, said Wednesday Canada should dial down its retaliatory tariffs.

“Maybe it’s time for Canada even to at least not add additional counter-tariffs in this space, but to even consider removing some of the counter-tariffs that are harmful to Canadian businesses and Saskatchewan businesses today,” Moe said during a radio interview, adding that Canada is largely “protected” by the CUSMA trade pact.

Moe said his province is working to protect industries hit hard by tariffs, including the steel sector.

“What we’ve done is pull forward a significant amount — 10 years, actually — of Crown procurement to support the steel industries here in Saskatchewan,” he said.

Moe credited Carney for his government’s efforts to strengthen trade ties with other countries, including Mexico, particularly while Canada remains subject to China’s canola oil and meal tariffs.

When asked to explain why his government put American liquor back on shelves and returned to its standard procurement processes, Moe said the government already prioritizes Saskatchewan companies.

“We need to get to that space in a more solid form with our largest trading partner, the United States of America, and someone is going to have to take the early steps,” he said, noting Alberta has also shifted its policies.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s office said she would not be issuing any statements ahead of the meeting.

Ford said he wants to see more done to stimulate the economy. He called on Ottawa to cut taxes and said the Bank of Canada should drop its interest rate.

“We have to get the governor of the Bank of Canada to lower those damn interest rates from 2.75,” he said. “Knock ’em down. Build confidence.

“Let’s work together on getting rid of the HST on homebuyers, and not just first (time) ones. Let’s stimulate the market and we’ll follow suit if the federal government does that.”

Ford said Wednesday he had a “good conversation” with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Tuesday that was “positive,” and he believes the prime minister is doing everything in his power to get a fair trade deal with the U.S.

Carney told a press conference in B.C. on Tuesday that he has not talked to Trump in recent days but will speak with him “when it makes sense.”

The prime minister added that about 85% of trade with the U.S. remains tariff-free because of CUSMA.

Sector-specific tariffs, like the 50% duty on steel, aluminum and copper, remain in place.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne were in Mexico City on Wednesday, part of a two-day mission to meet with Mexican officials and businesses on trade.

— With files from Lisa Johnson in Edmonton, Alta., and Allison Jones in Thornhill, Ont.

The effective U.S. tariff rate on Canadian exporters has dropped sharply in recent months as companies have rushed to bring their products into compliance with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (also referred to as the USMCA) trade deal, reports National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF).

In a new report, economists at NBF noted the effective tariff rate on exports to the U.S. is far below the headline levels imposed by the U.S. administration on Canada overall — thanks to exemptions from those headline rates under the USMCA trade deal.

“USMCA compliance remains the name of the tariff game in Canada,” it said.

For exports that don’t comply with the agreement, the tariff rate is over 25%, the report noted. At the rates of compliance with the USMCA back in March, the effective rate would be over 15%.

However, “As compliance has stepped up rapidly since tariffs were introduced this year, the effective tariff on U.S.-bound exports has dropped significantly,” it noted. Indeed, it estimates that the national effective tariff is currently about 5%.

Most of the exposure to higher U.S. tariffs is being felt in specifically targeted sectors, such as the steel, aluminum and auto industries, the report noted.

As a result, different regions of the country are also facing different economic impacts.

For instance, Ontario and Quebec’s higher exposures to these sectors translate into higher effective tariff rates in these provinces — over 7% — and more negative economic impacts, including rising unemployment rates.

“So, while the USMCA offers Canada significant tariff carveouts, we’d caution against completely discounting the impact of this year’s trade war,” the report said. Sector- and province-specific damage is happening — and that’s starting to be reflected in the economic data.

Greater Toronto Area home sales rose 10.9% in July compared with a year earlier as 6,100 properties changed hands, the most activity recorded in the month since 2021.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said sales were up 13% from June on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, as improved affordability driven by lower prices and borrowing costs “is starting to translate into increased home sales.”

The average selling price decreased 5.5% compared with a year earlier to $1,051,719, and the composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 5.4% year over year.

“More relief is required, particularly where borrowing costs are concerned, but it’s clear that a growing number of households are finding affordable options for home ownership,” said TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule in a press release.

July marked a significant turnaround for the Greater Toronto market after months of consecutive year-over-year declines in activity. Industry watchers have noted widespread hesitation among potential buyers due to economic uncertainty associated with the Canada-U.S. trade dispute.

April saw a 23% annual decline in the number of homes changing hands, followed by a 13% drop in May and roughly a 2% decrease in June.

TRREB chief information officer Jason Mercer said recent data suggests the Canadian economy is still “treading water in the face of trade uncertainty with the United States.”

“A key way to mitigate the impact of trade uncertainty is to promote growth in the domestic economy. The housing sector can be a catalyst for growth, with most spin-off expenditures accruing to regional economies,” he said in a press release.

“Further interest rate cuts would spur home sales and see more spin-off expenditures, positively impacting the economy and job growth.”

Last week, the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged for the third time in a row, but said future cuts may be warranted as U.S. tariffs persist. The central bank’s policy rate remains at 2.75%.

Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy has shown “some resilience” amid trade uncertainty, and that underlying inflation is proving stubborn.

Meanwhile, TRREB said 17,613 properties were newly listed in the GTA last month, up 5.7% compared with July 2024.

The number of active listings reached 30,215 last month, up 26.2% from last year’s inventory of 23,936 homes.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,205 sales last month, an 11% increase from July 2024. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales were up 10.9% to 3,895.

All property types throughout the region saw more sales overall in July compared with a year ago.

The largest increase was in the semi-detached segment, which was up 25.5%, followed by detached houses with an 11.3% increase.

There were 7.9% more townhouses sold and a 5.8% increase in the number of condos that changed hands.

Between a weaker job market, trade turmoil and a drop in population growth, Canadian consumer spending is set to slow in the months ahead, says Fitch Ratings.

In a new report, the rating agency reported that spending growth eased to just 0.2% on a quarter-over-quarter basis in the first quarter, as services spending stagnated and durable goods spending declined, partly offsetting an increase in non-durables spending.

For the full year, Fitch is forecasting consumer spending growth to slow to 2% this year — before dropping to just 0.7% in 2026: “Slower population growth will weigh on total spending through 2026.”

Fitch is also also expecting a softer labour market, and ongoing trade disruptions with the U.S. to weigh on consumer activity.

“Labour market conditions are deteriorating, particularly for export-oriented sectors, with business surveys and jobs data showing falling employment and reduced hiring intentions,” Fitch noted — adding that, “real income growth and wage gains are set to slow further,” too.

While the household savings rate is relatively strong at 5.7%, the rating agency said, “savings are concentrated among higher earners, limiting any potential boost to consumption.”

Household credit conditions, with high debt levels and increasing arrears, will also constrain spending, it noted.

“Mortgage debt and debt servicing costs remain historically high, and consumer confidence is volatile amid uncertainty over U.S. trade policy,” it said.

Indeed, rising U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports are expected to weigh on sentiment and economic activity, Fitch said.

Against that backdrop, “We forecast a mild recession in 2025, with GDP declining for two quarters,” it noted.

And, while interest rates are expected to ease further, “risks remain skewed towards fewer cuts if inflation remains elevated,” it noted.

Vancouver-area home sales were down 2% in July compared with last year, as the city’s real estate board says it continues to believe the market is showing early signs of recovery.

Greater Vancouver Realtors said residential sales in the region totalled 2,286 last month, down from the 2,333 sales recorded in July 2024 and 13.9% below the 10-year seasonal average.

The board’s director of economics and data analytics Andrew Lis said the figures confirm that the market has turned a corner after months of slow activity spurred by the Canada-U.S. trade war.

“Although the Bank of Canada held the policy rate steady in July, this decision could help bolster sales activity by providing more certainty surrounding borrowing costs at a time where economic uncertainty lingers due to ongoing trade negotiations with the USA,” Lis said in a press release.

Year-over-year sales were down around 10% in June, roughly half of the decline recorded in May.

The composite benchmark price in July was $1,165,300, down 2.7% from a year earlier and 0.7% lower than June.

There were 5,642 newly listed properties on the market in July, a 0.8% increase from last year and 12.4% above the 10-year seasonal average.

Total active listings rose 19.8% year-over-year to 17,168, which was 40.2% above usual levels for the month.

“Although sales activity is now recovering, this healthy level of inventory is sufficient to keep home prices trending sideways over the short term as supply and demand remain relatively balanced,” said Lis.

“However, if the recovery in sales activity accelerates, these favourable conditions for home buyers may begin slowly slipping away, as inventory levels decline, and home sellers gain more bargaining power.”

Sales in the detached homes category were down 4.1% year-over-year to 660 last month, while 2.9% fewer apartments changed hands at 1,158.

There were 459 attached home sales, a 5% increase compared with July 2024.